Nowadays Kargil euphoria is being created regarding successful conclusion of the operation Vijay. Any objective evaluation of the operation is attributed to lack of “patriotism”. In order to prove his loyalty to the nation every one is expected to praise security forces, intelligence agencies, the prime minister, the defense minister and others associated with the operation. This inspite of the fact that India did not achieve anything besides regaining control of lost territory. This control too was secured at a heavy cost in terms of manpower and expenditure. Again the question whether this eviction was achieved through efforts of the Indian government or as a result of American intervention needs to be assessed. Did Americans intervene because of success of Indian diplomacy or out of their own long term policy considerations also demands an evaluation. The propaganda of B.J.P. that it has managed to win over American support should be taken with a grain of salt. Even the B.J.P. leadership may not be sure about this American posture and may be over publicising it for achieving electoral gains.
In order to have an objective assessment of the Kargil conflict, we need to identify the objectives which Pakistan wanted to achieve through this intrusion. No serious observer of Indo-Pak relations can say that Pakistan wanted to invade Kashmir or any part of it. What they wanted was a limited low intensity conflict. Through this conflict Pakistan wanted to internationalise Kashmir problem and project it as a nuclear flash point of the sub-continent. Pakistan has to a great extent succeeded in this pursuit. Pakistan managed to keep the conflict confined to Kargil and invoke the attention of the world community towards Kashmir. B.J.P. government indirectly helped Pakistan to achieve this objective. It was India which approached G-8-Leaders with the problem. When Pakistan offered to negotiate, India refused to have a dialogue with Pakistan. After this refusal Nawaz Sharief straight away proceeded to Washington and concluded a deal with President Clinton. By its refusal to have bi-lateral talks with Pakistan Indian government facilitated American involvement in the Indo-Pak affairs. India has always been against such an involvement. On top of it, Pakistan managed to seek an assurance of president Clinton’s personal interest in getting the Kashmir problem resolved.
One more objective which Pakistan wanted to achieve through Kargil was to provoke a heavy concentration of Indian troops in Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir. They wanted to dissipate concentration of the Indian army else-where in the state so that militants could have a respite. Pakistan by provoking heavy deployment of Indian security forces in Ladakh-Kargil region has managed to create big gaps in the Indian security system in Kashmir valley. According to Kashmir Chief Minister, 60 to 70 battalions of army had to be withdrawn from the state. It is because of these gaps that militants in the Kashmir have managed to re-group and launch frontal attacks on the Indian defense establishments. During the last few days, several camps of the Indian security agencies have been devastated.
Whole of the Ladakh region is inhospitable. Nature is the biggest enemy of any army deployed in this icy desert. Security forces operating such an area have to pay a heavy price to fight this harsh nature. The price involves drain of both material resources as well as manpower. Extent of this loss can be assessed by the fact that India is losing more than one billion rupees and around hundred jawans in Saichen every month. By provoking heavy deployment of Indian forces along the L.O.C. in Ladakh region, Pakistan has achieved one more objective. Indian economy and energy of its security personal will continue to get drained in the inhospitable terrain of the Kargil-Batalic sector. Kargil- Batalic sector is several times bigger than Saichen. It means manifold increase in the loss of Indian resources.
Finally Pakistan wanted to verify, the deterrence potential of its nuclear device that was tested after Pokhran blasts. Previously whenever Pakistan tried to intrude into Kashmir, India retaliated by crossing Line of Control or the international border. In 1965, India responded to insurgency in Kashmir with an attack on Haji-Peer area of Pakistan administered Kashmir. When Pakistan responded to this attack by occupying Chamb area of Jammu, India retaliated by an attack on Lahore. This time in spite of getting mauled continuously for two months, India had to restrain its security forces. They were not allowed to cross Line of Control or the Indo-Pak border. Pakistan attributes Indian restrain to its nuclear potential. It is perceived that the nuclear capability has provided Pakistan a degree of immunity against any foreign aggression. Vindication of the potency of its nuclear power has emboldened Pakistan to the extent of threatening India with more Kargil like situations in case Kashmir issue is not resolved.
The points elaborated above are too manifest to escape the attention of Indian defense analysts. The inflated version of achievements of operation “Vijay” are simply aimed at enhancing electoral fortunes of the ruling B.J.P. Opposition to Muslim League and colonial rule provided a rallying point for masses in their association with the Congress in pre-partition days. In post partition era Pakistan-phobia was utilised to muster the support of masses for a long time. This phobia evaporated in 1971 Indo-Pak war. With the creation of Bangladesh, inherent clash of interests between different segments of Indian society became manifest. India experienced mushrooming of caste and region based political parties. Culmination of this process was seen in the decline and defeat of the Congress Party. Bhartiya Janta Party tried to fill up the vacuum by reviving age-old issues of enmity between Hindus and Muslims. They soon, however realised that Ayodhya, Mathura and Kashi controversies are not going to be of any help beyond the Vindhya Chal. Furthermore worsening relations between Hindus and Muslims have a potential of landing India into large scale civil war. B.J.P. was in search of an alternative issue. Kargil crisis provided it a handy tool and resolved its problem. The drum-beaters of jung na hone dengay mantra started demonizing Pakistan. RSS cadres were receptive to this line of action as it suited their ideology of reviving memories of past Afghan and Turkish invasions of India. By reviving negative feeling of Pakistan phobia, B.J.P. leaders are trying to compensate lack of any positive cohesive element in the Indian society so that its segregation on the basis of cast and region can be contained. On the propaganda level, they seem to have succeeded. To what extent this media hype will be reflected in terms of votes can only be assessed after the elections.
In order to have an objective assessment of the Kargil conflict, we need to identify the objectives which Pakistan wanted to achieve through this intrusion. No serious observer of Indo-Pak relations can say that Pakistan wanted to invade Kashmir or any part of it. What they wanted was a limited low intensity conflict. Through this conflict Pakistan wanted to internationalise Kashmir problem and project it as a nuclear flash point of the sub-continent. Pakistan has to a great extent succeeded in this pursuit. Pakistan managed to keep the conflict confined to Kargil and invoke the attention of the world community towards Kashmir. B.J.P. government indirectly helped Pakistan to achieve this objective. It was India which approached G-8-Leaders with the problem. When Pakistan offered to negotiate, India refused to have a dialogue with Pakistan. After this refusal Nawaz Sharief straight away proceeded to Washington and concluded a deal with President Clinton. By its refusal to have bi-lateral talks with Pakistan Indian government facilitated American involvement in the Indo-Pak affairs. India has always been against such an involvement. On top of it, Pakistan managed to seek an assurance of president Clinton’s personal interest in getting the Kashmir problem resolved.
One more objective which Pakistan wanted to achieve through Kargil was to provoke a heavy concentration of Indian troops in Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir. They wanted to dissipate concentration of the Indian army else-where in the state so that militants could have a respite. Pakistan by provoking heavy deployment of Indian security forces in Ladakh-Kargil region has managed to create big gaps in the Indian security system in Kashmir valley. According to Kashmir Chief Minister, 60 to 70 battalions of army had to be withdrawn from the state. It is because of these gaps that militants in the Kashmir have managed to re-group and launch frontal attacks on the Indian defense establishments. During the last few days, several camps of the Indian security agencies have been devastated.
Whole of the Ladakh region is inhospitable. Nature is the biggest enemy of any army deployed in this icy desert. Security forces operating such an area have to pay a heavy price to fight this harsh nature. The price involves drain of both material resources as well as manpower. Extent of this loss can be assessed by the fact that India is losing more than one billion rupees and around hundred jawans in Saichen every month. By provoking heavy deployment of Indian forces along the L.O.C. in Ladakh region, Pakistan has achieved one more objective. Indian economy and energy of its security personal will continue to get drained in the inhospitable terrain of the Kargil-Batalic sector. Kargil- Batalic sector is several times bigger than Saichen. It means manifold increase in the loss of Indian resources.
Finally Pakistan wanted to verify, the deterrence potential of its nuclear device that was tested after Pokhran blasts. Previously whenever Pakistan tried to intrude into Kashmir, India retaliated by crossing Line of Control or the international border. In 1965, India responded to insurgency in Kashmir with an attack on Haji-Peer area of Pakistan administered Kashmir. When Pakistan responded to this attack by occupying Chamb area of Jammu, India retaliated by an attack on Lahore. This time in spite of getting mauled continuously for two months, India had to restrain its security forces. They were not allowed to cross Line of Control or the Indo-Pak border. Pakistan attributes Indian restrain to its nuclear potential. It is perceived that the nuclear capability has provided Pakistan a degree of immunity against any foreign aggression. Vindication of the potency of its nuclear power has emboldened Pakistan to the extent of threatening India with more Kargil like situations in case Kashmir issue is not resolved.
The points elaborated above are too manifest to escape the attention of Indian defense analysts. The inflated version of achievements of operation “Vijay” are simply aimed at enhancing electoral fortunes of the ruling B.J.P. Opposition to Muslim League and colonial rule provided a rallying point for masses in their association with the Congress in pre-partition days. In post partition era Pakistan-phobia was utilised to muster the support of masses for a long time. This phobia evaporated in 1971 Indo-Pak war. With the creation of Bangladesh, inherent clash of interests between different segments of Indian society became manifest. India experienced mushrooming of caste and region based political parties. Culmination of this process was seen in the decline and defeat of the Congress Party. Bhartiya Janta Party tried to fill up the vacuum by reviving age-old issues of enmity between Hindus and Muslims. They soon, however realised that Ayodhya, Mathura and Kashi controversies are not going to be of any help beyond the Vindhya Chal. Furthermore worsening relations between Hindus and Muslims have a potential of landing India into large scale civil war. B.J.P. was in search of an alternative issue. Kargil crisis provided it a handy tool and resolved its problem. The drum-beaters of jung na hone dengay mantra started demonizing Pakistan. RSS cadres were receptive to this line of action as it suited their ideology of reviving memories of past Afghan and Turkish invasions of India. By reviving negative feeling of Pakistan phobia, B.J.P. leaders are trying to compensate lack of any positive cohesive element in the Indian society so that its segregation on the basis of cast and region can be contained. On the propaganda level, they seem to have succeeded. To what extent this media hype will be reflected in terms of votes can only be assessed after the elections.
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