Tuesday, May 12, 2009

EMERGING POLITICAL SCENARIO

Kabootar Baazi is an old trait. Those living in Old Delhi and Lucknow, are experts in this trait. Professional Kabootar Baaz is one who manages to trap pigeons of others through use of his own ones. Modus operandi of this operation is to let his own pigeon fly with pigeons of others. Make it to take lead in flights and facilitate their landing on his own roof. The pigeons used in this operation are termed as decoys. 
From Old Delhi, New Delhi too seems to have learned this trait and is utilizing it to tame Kashmiris. Mufti Mohammad Saeed was asked to hijack slogans of separatists during his tenure. He continued to follow the same politics after his exit. Mufti proceeded to the extent of saying that “militants should now feel complacent and abdicate violence because their representatives have assumed reigns of power.” What militants experienced however was nothing other than a reign of annihilation of their cadres during the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) rule. There was no let up in military operations against insurgents while peace, dialogue and healing touch remained the favorite discourse of Muftis. On political front PDP contributed to dissensions within Hurriyat which led to its bifurcation. A good number of its leaders assumed moderate postures. Line of difference between mainstream political parties and moderate Hurriyat got blurred. Once Mufti outlived his utility like every other Kashmiri chief minister, he was dethroned in a disgraceful manner. Ghulam Nabi Azad was installed in his position. Nowadays Farooq Abdullah is being groomed for a similar role. He has been deputed to join separatists and facilitate their participation in electoral politics. It is in pursuance of this role that Farooq Abdullah has offered Hurriyat to fight elections jointly with him. New Delhi isn’t worried if Farooq Abdullah uses some anti-India slogans during this operation. Abdullahs after all have been serving India while using similar language for generations. Strategists in New Delhi are sure that results of these National Conference somersaults are in no way going to be against Indian interests.
Whole of this gameplan is being persued in pursuance of a thought process of Dr Karan Singh. Dr Singh for a long time has been asking New Delhi to reorient its Kashmir policy. To him for past fifty years, Kashmir policy of New Delhi has been Kashmir centric. In his perception, Kashmir is a misnomer for the state of Jammu and Kashmir. For him, Jammu precedes Kashmir and infact Kashmir was made to join Jammu by Dogra rulers through their connivance with British imperialists. His paradigm envisages making Kashmir policy Jammu-centric and marginalizing Kashmir valley through a sustained process of administrative and electoral mechanizations.
On administrative level, the process is on. Kashmiris hold only one third positions at highest levels of administrations. Imported Indian Administrative Service officers continue to emasculate avenues of Kashmiri youth. With every succeeding list number of selected candidates for Kashmir Administrative Service and judiciary keeps on depleting. The number of successful Kashmiri candidates in recently declared KAS results was only 28 against 104 from Jammu. If same trend persists within next twenty years, Kashmiris will be exclusively marginalized from executive as well as judiciary. One wonders why those very Kashmiri boys and girls are unable to compete for administrative and judicial services who leave everyone behind in the competitive examinations for medicine, engineering and other professional courses. Reason is nothing but a sustained policy of marginalizing Kashmiris from both administrative as well as judicial services. Bureaucracy and judiciary are after all main instruments of controlling populations. Technocrats on the other hand simply serve as instruments in the hands of real decision makers.
On political front, the policy of marginalization of Kashmiris is sought to be executed through manipulation of electoral politics. In this persuit, New Delhi wants to have as many parties in Kashmir electoral politics as is possible for it to manage. It has tamed National Conference and is using it to tame Hurriyat (M). Mufti’s PDP is creation of New Delhi. Insignificant actors like Tarigami and others associated with him receive full fledged patronization from New Delhi. Sajad Lone and some other kids are being groomed to fight coming elections as a separate group. In case Hurriyat (M) gets trapped in this game plan and joins electoral fray, it will have disastrous consequences for Kashmir cause. Going for elections is expected of Hurriyat (M) on account of its abdication of right of self-determination in favour of self-rule despite its statement to the contrary. Ever since Hurriyat (M) has adopted compromising postures towards New Delhi, it has lost its credibility. Its soft postures didn’t yield any results and human rights situation continued to worsen. In this situation, bereft of credibility, if Hurriyat (M) goes for electoral politics, it will be nothing but success of Kabootar Baazi of New Delhi. Pigeons of adversaries will formally join the flock of pro India parties. Hurriyat is unlikely to get more than ten seats. Kashmir will be divided between NC, PDP, Hurriyat (M) and others. Jammu, Kuthwa and Udhampur will be swept by Congress. Topography and scattered nature of population makes it easy for New Delhi to facilitate ‘election’ of its choice in Doda, Poonch and Rajori. Congress can easily manipulate results of militarized constituencies like Uri, Tangdhar, Karnah, Gurez, Kargil, Zanskar, Leh and Nobra in its favor. This way it can secure at least six seats from Kashmir division. After securing majority, it will ask any of the velleyite parties to join it. If one party doesn’t get ready, others will be more than ready to support it. Even at present, National Conference is ready to support the Congress in case PDP withdraws its support. In post election situation, same politics will be re-enacted. If any of its allies from valley leaves the Congress, others like NC will be ready to join it. Internationally electoral results will be portrayed as a verdict against secession. Musharraf too may use these results as an ex post facto justification for his abdication of Kashmir cause. Internally whatever levers of power are retained by Kashmiris of valley will shift to Jammu. Marginalization of Kashmiris will be complete. Indifference and mute response of New Delhi towards any proposal regarding resolution of Kashmir dispute is guided by these calculations. New Delhi is persuading separatists to join electoral politics and using this as a tool to defeat the campaign for secession. Farooq is nothing but a decoy of New Delhi for accomplishment of this job.


No comments:

Post a Comment